Is the 'hard bottom' of SOL forming? The price correction is just an appearance, the real determinant of the lower limit is always demand and holder structure. Although the decline of SOL in this round is accompanied by the overall market trend, it is not simply an emotional ebb, but a concentrated test of cost, loss tolerance, and core consensus groups. Below, we will break down the current position of SOL from four dimensions: structure, emotion, behavior, and cost, as well as the risks and supports behind these data that deserve our attention. 1. Structure Compared to ETH, SOL-URPD appears more polarized and presents a unique "convex" shape; There are very few chips left in the price range below $120 and above $200, and the vast majority of chips last changed hands in the price range between $120 and $200. Currently, this range has accumulated 435 million SOLs, accounting for 77% of the circulation. (Figure 1) This proportion is very terrifying! In other words, the majority of SOLs have a cost difference of less than $80 for switching hands on the chain. The advantage of not having a significant cost difference is that 'we die together'. As long as there are no more black swans like thunderstorms, the lower limit of SOL should be much higher than in previous cycles. But the downside is also that it is too concentrated, resulting in a heavy middle section of the "car body". In order to make a significant breakthrough, it is necessary to digest the selling pressure of the profit market layer by layer, which is not easy. 2. Emotions According to SOL's PSIP (Profit Supply Percentage) data, this round of correction has almost pushed the emotions of SOL holders to the extreme; PSIP even fell to a historical freezing point of 20% at one point (equivalent to a loss of 80% of circulating chips). (Figure 2) From the past 5 years, whenever SOL-PSIP falls below 30%, it is highly likely to be a low point for SOL. However, there was only one instance where the price of SOL plummeted to $9.97 and PSIP dropped to 11% within 2 weeks due to the impact of the FTX thunderstorm event on December 30, 2022, which was less than 20%. Although we all know afterwards that most people experience a retaliatory rebound after being emotionally suppressed to the extreme, when we are immersed in it, there should not be many people who have the courage and bravery to do so. 3. Behavior The main funds in the SOL whale population are in the range of holding 1k-10k ppm. Their position size is strongly correlated with the price performance of SOL. Usually they increase their holdings, while SOL shows strong performance; They reduced their holdings, and SOL began to rebound. But interestingly, before the expected approval of the ETF in October 25, while SOL prices were rising, this whale group was quietly reducing their holdings. (Figure 3) At that time, other groups took over the chips they distributed, allowing them to complete high-level batch shipments without affecting the price. However, with the deep correction of SOL prices in this round, the whales have regained the chips they previously distributed. It can be seen that even when PSIP drops to 20%, they are still significantly increasing their holdings. This also plays a key role in stabilizing the price of SOL. Of course, we also need to constantly monitor whether their positive actions are sustained in the future. 4. Cost By separately screening the cost basis of the above-mentioned whale populations, it can be seen that their average cost is currently around $133. In a normal bull market, it is difficult for the price of SOL to fall below this line, for example, in April of 2025, it only touched once and rebounded again. (Figure 4) In the previous cycle, it was also due to the Luna Thunder+FTX bankruptcy that SOL prices deviated significantly from the whale cost line. Therefore, we can consider that SOL prices below this cost line belong to the bottom range. As for how deep the lowest point is, or how much deviation there is, it depends on how much consensus these major holders have and how firmly they hold onto their chips; And whether it can continue to provide purchasing power when the price falls below the cost. At least for now, it can be considered as the first time in this cycle that they have fallen into the flesh, and their performance is still good. But whether it's SOL or ETH, in the context of the overall bear market sentiment, no one can escape the influence of BTC and emerge from an independent market. Therefore, this also adds another layer of factors to consider in our judgment. ------------------------------------ Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits