Murphy
Murphy|Jan 05, 2026 10:13
BTC rebound is approaching the first resistance level! The BTC supply quantile holding cost band divides the holding cost (realized price) of the entire BTC chain into quantiles, and then plots the cost levels of different intervals. It is convenient for us to use this chip structure distribution to observe possible support or pressure levels. The black line represents the BTC price; The purple line (0.65 percentile cost) indicates that 65% of the chip costs in BTC flow are below this line. Usually, this is the most critical support level during the bull bear transition period, currently at $84870. Similarly, the red and green lines represent the percentile costs of 0.75 and 0.85, respectively; After the purple line gained support, the first hurdle for the rebound was the 0.75th percentile cost line (red line) - $92722; Currently, BTC is also launching an attack on this. When the price approaches or exceeds the red line, it means that an additional 10% of chips have been released. Of course, only by crossing the red line can we expect the next target: $104562 (at the green line position). Observant friends should be able to observe that the purple line has almost become a straight line since November 22, 2025, with little change. This indicates that after BTC fell to $8.4w, chips with costs below the 0.65 percentile did not participate in large-scale turnover. Relatively more chips are in the 0.65-0.75 percentile - also the main force of panic trading, as the red line has the largest downward trend. This is also one of the main reasons why BTC was able to stop falling at the purple line. This article is sponsored by @ Bitget | Bitget VIP, Lower rates and more generous benefits
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