wu fan|Dec 31, 2025 04:38
Good company
Good price
But it just doesn’t go up
It’s tough for physical industries right now
Even Zhonghua cigarettes aren’t selling anymore
Based on the experience from 2014,
After the stock market surged, housing prices started to take off in 2016.
The market rebounded after the winter.
But back then, the population dividend wasn’t as depleted as it is today,
So a nationwide price surge definitely won’t happen again.
The rapid growth of baijiu under large-scale infrastructure projects has also ended.
Moutai is now a defensive asset, not an offensive one.
It’s roughly equivalent to buying “U.S. Treasury bonds” in the A-share market.
You won’t lose much, but the expected returns are limited.
So, it has a high margin of safety,
High dividends,
But lacks growth potential.
Moutai is now only at a 20x PE ratio.
You ask me if you should buy it?
Just control your position size.
At most, you can allocate up to 25% of your personal net assets.
If you’re only buying one stock in the A-share market, make it this one.
Another way to calculate: if you plan to spend 200,000 yuan a year,
You can buy at least 4 million yuan worth of Moutai.
Beyond that, it’s up to you, but don’t exceed 25% of your net worth.
Moutai won’t go bankrupt; it will see its rebound.
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