TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 23, 2025 16:37
That's right, MSCI is conducting a public consultation proposing to remove companies with "digital assets (such as Bitcoin) holding more than 50% of total assets" from its global index. The reason is that these companies are more like investment funds than traditional operating companies. On MSTR's balance sheet, the proportion of Bitcoin assets is as high as 77-81%, far exceeding the 50% red line. If the proposal is passed, MSTR will be the first to be removed.
MSCI is expected to announce its final decision on January 15, 2026, which will take effect in February. So the most rational strategy for MSTR is to sell as many stocks as possible to raise funds before the boots land, using the current stock price that has not yet collapsed.
If it is not eliminated by then: the raised money can continue to buy coins, and everyone is happy.
If excluded: Stock prices may plummet due to passive fund selling, and the cost of diluting equity will be much higher if financing is sought later. Holding cash or Bitcoin in hand now can at least ensure debt repayment and basic liquidity security.
The effective date for MSTR to be included in the MSCI World Index is May 31, 2024, when the pancake price was around 67000.
If MSTR 1.15 is removed, firstly MSTR stocks will definitely plummet.
After a stock plunge, the original "high premium bond/stock issuance ->buying Bitcoin ->pushing up the coin price ->higher stock price ->continuing to issue stocks" flywheel will be broken. Da Bing will lose a strong buying potential, and market confidence will suffer a significant blow.
When MSTR was included in the index last year, the market touted that the move itself symbolized the entry of Bitcoin assets into the global core asset allocation pool. If it is removed this time due to "holding too much Bitcoin", it can be interpreted as Bitcoin not being accepted by mainstream assets, and companies that originally planned to operate according to the same logic will also retreat, invisibly losing a group of potential buyers.
Perhaps the market has seen the above risks, so it is hesitant to rise. It seems that it is better to avoid risks before the 15th.
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