TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 18, 2025 14:09
The core CPI of 2.6% is the lowest level since 2021, which is a big surprise. After all, I thought that giving a score of 2.9% would be considered good for numbers starting with the letter 2. Given this kind of data, the market may not even care about inaccurate data caused by the government shutdown. Personally, I speculate that such low inflation data may be related to the relatively low prices during the Thanksgiving promotion and the decline in crude oil prices. Anyway, the sharp decline in inflation has effectively countered the hawkish narrative of secondary inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to confidently enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion in the future. Also, because "moderate inflation" is a popular indicator in economics, if the stock market can rise again in the future, there will definitely be great scholars using this argument. After the release of CPI data just now, US bond rates and the US dollar index fell in response, while the gold pie rose in response, indicating that the familiar rhythm has returned.
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