TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Dec 18, 2025 12:01
After the non farm payroll announcement two days ago, the CPI will be released again tonight. Let's take a brief look ahead. Due to missing data for October, there is no prior data available, and the current market expectation is 3.1%. The core highlight tonight is whether the CPI data will start with a 2 or a 3. If CPI falls back to 2.9% or lower, it indicates that inflation is controllable from a data perspective, strengthening the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts in 2026. If CPI rebounds to 3.0% or above, it may strengthen the inflation stickiness narrative, cool down expectations of interest rate cuts, increase US bond yields, and put pressure on interest rate sensitive technology stocks. Similar to the big non farm data collection two days ago, due to the previous government shutdown, data collection work was concentrated in the second half of November. At the same time, there was also a Thanksgiving promotion in November, which caused significant price fluctuations in the first and second half of the month, and the data may be distorted. It should be noted that since early October, the impact of macro data on the trend of Bitcoin has begun to change. If the Earth used to revolve around the Sun, now it revolves around three suns. The uncertainty in the three body world is too high, and the market cannot be predicted and interpreted from a single dimension. In practical operation, the pattern may still not be clear, and only short-term small wave can be done.
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