Federal Reserve Chairman's' Three Palace Battle 'Upgrades, Waller Shares Votes, Walsh, Hassett's True confidant is irreplaceable! Besent confirms the big drop! At the beginning of next year, each person will receive a tax refund of $1000-2000. Is encryption going to revive the frenzy of the epidemic? TL;DR Non farm is important, but narrative is more important The postponement of interest rate cuts does not mean that they will not come The choice of chairman has a greater impact on emotions than data The advantage of 'own people' Hassett is being magnified The money policy should not be underestimated Subsidies back then=a wave of nationwide account opening The environment is different this time, but human nature has not changed Japan's interest rate hike is currently the biggest variable Last night's non farm payroll was relatively stable, with employment numbers exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate also reached a new high in nearly four years, reaching 4.6%. This is still a great positive for the expectation of a January interest rate cut, but the data does not reflect much. Currently, the probability of a January interest rate cut on PolyMarket is 23%, and the probability on CME is 24%, without a significant increase. There are two reasons for this. One is that the previous government shutdown led to inaccurate and partially distorted data collection, so it can only provide emotional guidance to the market; In the midst of the January FOMC, there is also the December non farm payroll data and unemployment rate released in January, which are the truly decisive data. Therefore, after the non farm payroll was announced last night, there were fluctuations in the market that were greatly affected by emotions, such as the Big Dipper, which had no fundamentals and investors were staring at it day by day. Only the Nasdaq rose in the US stock market, and technology stocks are more sensitive to market liquidity. From last night to today, another positive event was that in the competition for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Walsh's victory rate dropped, and now it is only 22%, while Hassett's victory rate has returned to 54%. The reason for the decline in Walsh's victory rate is that White House insiders revealed that Trump will interview Waller on Wednesday night, which means that the current chairman is not one of two but one of three. Waller is the current director of the Federal Reserve, whose role basically coincides with that of Walsh, and is almost acceptable to Wall Street, which can ensure that there will be no chaos after taking office. The market reaction is that Waller shares the votes of Walsh, and Hassett started talking even last night The independence of the Federal Reserve, and canvassed himself that he should not be disqualified because he is a friend of Trump. It can be seen that the relationship between Trump and Hassett is very good, which is why Wall Street is so afraid. The first impression has been engraved in the bones. Trump is now a senior and can not withstand betrayal. Choosing his own person is still a high probability event, which is why Hassett thinks that the biggest competitor is not others, but Bessett. This is the ranking of close relationship with Trump. Last night, Besant released a surprise message, saying that the government might send tax rebates of $1000-2000 to each family early next year. In the first quarter, $100-150 billion would enter the pockets of the American people. This was the implementation version of Trump's "big coin dropping" in November. At that time, many institutions came out to question. Now Besant is a firm decision. Don't underestimate this direct money releasing mode. During the epidemic in 2020, Americans did so. Almost all the little partners in the United States received money. At that time, because of the epidemic, many people worked at home, even when they were stopped working, a lot of energy could not be released, leading many people to open the crypto exchange. My cousin also registered cb, bought doge and shib, and a lot of NFT, He said that almost all of his colleagues are trading in cryptocurrency or stocks, and many of them do not lack the thousands of dollars in subsidies. There are too many people investing in the financial market as wealth management and lottery. Therefore, if the money issuance is implemented early next year, it may replicate the prosperity of that year. This is definitely a potential good news, and the success of 2026 may depend on it. Of course, there are still risk events in 2026. Suspending the calculation of interest rates is one thing. If inflation data is not good or employment is too good, another possibility is that the US government may have to shut down. The current temporary funding bill only has enough funds to sustain until January 30, 2026, which is a high-risk point. At that time, the government will face high uncertainty again. This year's government shutdown lasted for 43 days, setting a historical record. During this period, the trend of the cryptocurrency market was very bad, so some smart funds may avoid risks in advance; Another concern for cryptocurrency players who firmly believe in the 4-year cycle theory is early next year, as this is the starting point of a bear market. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that many cryptocurrency funds may sell out early due to inertia, which is also one of the risk points. However, 2026 is still far away, and we still have to face a major cut, which is the Japanese interest rate hike on Friday. This is already a certainty, and the biggest fear for the market now is to say at the meeting that interest rates will continue to rise next year, which may exacerbate panic. In addition, we need to look at the trend of the Japanese yen exchange rate USD/JPY. If there is a rapid appreciation, it will be a red alert for global financial asset correction, including cryptocurrency.