Next week's most noteworthy event: Yen interest rate hike! What's the impact? Currently, Polymarket shows a 98.3% probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19th—pretty much a done deal. So, the biggest concern here is the issue of yen carry trade funds. How much of a shock will this bring to the market? Here's my conclusion: I think the impact might not be as big as everyone imagines. Reasons: 1. Regarding this rate hike, the Bank of Japan has been managing expectations well in advance, so most carry trade funds have likely acted ahead of time; 2. The long-term depreciation trend of the yen won't change, meaning the long-term dollar-yen carry trade chain will continue to exist—it’s just that profits will shrink a bit; 3. Current market contract positions are very low, and crypto market hedge funds are no longer the main players, so the impact will mostly be on the spot market, which still depends on overall dollar liquidity.