Yesterday I was scared by Japan, today I am pampered by the United States: no one dares to say the real reason why the pancake has returned to 9.3w! TL;DR： Don't go wrong—— Yesterday's kick was panic and leverage, Today's kick is rational and smart money. The expectation of Japan raising interest rates has scared people away, Deleveraging to break through prices, But the real big money, The focus is on: Repurchase of Federal Reserve QE The space for interest rate cuts brought about by weak employment 401 (k) Should I buy Bitcoin When will DTCC move all its assets onto the chain When will ETH and SOL transition from "public chains" to "global settlement layers" On the surface, the K-line is a roller coaster. At the bottom level: chips are changing hands, the track is rearranging. Retail investors are asking, 'Can it still rise back?', Institutions are thinking of 'quickly copying the bottom'. As I mentioned yesterday, the market will not continue to deteriorate because the Federal Reserve has not released too many negative signals. On the contrary, the monthly repurchase of $40 billion has even exceeded Wall Street's expectations. The previous prediction was a total repurchase of $360 billion in 2026, which is $30 billion per month. Last night, the big bears commented that RMP was intended to conceal the fragility of the banking system, essentially restarting QE. No matter how you look at it, it is still a positive news. However, the expectation of Japan raising interest rates is too strong. The former executive of the Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates four times by 2027, which is actually beyond the frequency of the Federal Reserve's dot matrix chart of once in 2026 and once in 2027. Therefore, the currency market immediately turned around and began pricing daily interest rate hikes, which was bearish. Yesterday, it fell below the negative price. 9w, of course, there must also be a sharp drop to reduce long leverage. Today, the coin price has returned to 9w2-9w3 It can be considered a return to rationality. In addition, Reuters expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25% in December and another rate hike before September next year, which is more dovish than the expectations of Bank of Japan executives. Last night, there were some positive news. Firstly, the number of first-time unemployed applicants increased by 44000, exceeding expectations and setting a new record for the largest increase in 2020. This is the most timely employment data, which has to some extent increased the expectation of a January interest rate cut. CME is now reporting 26.6%, mainly due to Morgan Stanley and Citibank changing their stance. They believe that there will be another interest rate cut in January. Although there is no market consensus yet, there is indeed a trend of interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's mouthpiece gave three elements of interest rate reduction next year: first, evidence of declining inflation, second, evidence of deteriorating labor force, third, the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's personnel, and third, actually started. From Trump, Cook was fired, Milan was promoted to the board of directors, and then the chairman of the Federal Reserve was elected in advance. These are all operations that challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve. Last night, almost all the directors of the regional reserve were re elected early. Although there are more hawks, they have no voting rights, and at the same time, they eliminate tail risk, which is not bad. And last night there was also a regulatory boost. Last night, Congress began urging the SEC to allow Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to be included in the 401 (k) retirement plan. The main purpose of this plan is to treat digital assets as an investment category on par with alternative assets. After passing it, the current rules and restrictions will be lifted, which is beneficial for 401 social security funds to buy coins. The SEC is already very pro crypto, and Congress is even more anxious than him. This is a good news; Another advantage is that SEC allows DTCC, the largest securities settlement and custody center in the United States, to put stocks, bonds and treasury bond on the chain, which is going to speed up. Next year's tokenization is definitely a super narrative, and this is the most obvious benefit for ETH and SOL. They can almost eat more than 90% of the dividends of assets on the chain. When they are put on the chain on a large scale, their narrative may completely change and become a real global infrastructure, instead of just turning around in a small circle now. The chairman of SEC started calling the United States to enter the transformation chain last night, expecting the exemption of sec innovation. I can't imagine that they will issue coins next year ICO、 How popular is tokenization? Tom Lee shouted for ETH 100000 two days ago and also mentioned tokenization. He believes that this is a super narrative with a lifecycle of 5-10 years, and in ten years, ETH will become a super giant chain. Speaking of the market, last night the US stock market was still surging, and once again confirming the Federal Reserve's FOMC is completely positive. The big pancake only fluctuated slightly during the US stock and currency market period, and continued to rise with the US stock market after time. However, the knockoff is not as strong anymore, almost following the decline but not the rise. The reason is still the liquidity problem I have been talking about. Originally, liquidity in this bull market did not enter knockoff, and now even the big pancake has liquidity problems. The knockoff is naturally even worse. Observing that most knockoffs have a liquidity drop of another level after each fluctuation, the price of the coin will only fall and rebound weakly, and it will be in an infinite state. This has formed a fact, knockoff. Especially with the old coins on CEX, we can never go back to the past, so let go sooner. In the future market, there will only be two types of coins that can be bought: either platform tokens with cash flow, such as BNB, Hype, Aster, Okb, etc., or public chain tokens with sufficient transaction fees, such as ETH, SOL, TRON. These types of projects are like companies that can be valued based on their profitability level, or they can invest in projects with sufficient consensus, such as BTC, doge, ltc, xrp, etc. To meet this condition, one must go through several bull and bear cycles. In addition to these two types, try to only play in the short term and use traffic strategies. Traffic can be played, but once it weakens, it will immediately run. No matter how big the pie is drawn, so-called work projects are actually part of memes. Seed, if the heat goes too high, it will die.