Phyrex|Dec 10, 2025 21:17
Although today's homework is not difficult, it is a bit tedious. The last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in 2025 has passed, and overall it has not had a significant impact on the market. From the dot matrix, the actual easing compared to September is a bit, but there is still a considerable gap between it and the market's expected project. However, the biggest variable in 2026 is Powell replacing Hassett, and the June dot matrix after the handover is even more important.
Powell's speech did not show any hawkish direction except for a slight disdain for the January interest rate cut. He even expressed optimism about inflation, believing that as long as tariffs can be determined, the impact on commodity inflation is likely to be one-time. If inflation goes down, the Federal Reserve will consider more interest rate cuts, and once again indicate that if the labor market continues to decline, the Federal Reserve will also intervene (interest rate cuts).
The next month is about looking at the data. Labor data is getting worse, which means the probability of interest rate cuts is increasing. Inflation data is getting lower, which means the probability of interest rate cuts is increasing. These two points have not changed much. In January, the Supreme Court should also announce the issue of Trump tariff. Let's see then. But on the whole, Powell's performance today is much better than that of last December. Last year was a real eagle. And Powell also believes that there will be a significant increase in GDP in 2026.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover rate is still quite high, mainly due to investors' game theory during critical periods. After today, the turnover rate may gradually decrease, and the increase in turnover rate also indicates that short-term investors are more active. From the data, the highest turnover rate is still among investors who have been buying at the bottom in recent days, especially new investors with cost prices below $90000 who have reduced their holdings more.
The chip structure is quite normal, and no stability issues have been found, especially for high loss investors who have not shown any signs of panic. Next, it depends on the data released in December. If the expectation of interest rate cuts in January continues to rise, then the market heat can still be maintained.
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