TraderS | 缺德道人|Dec 09, 2025 14:25
At first glance, this ADP employment rebound news seems to weaken rate cut expectations, but with this week's rate cut almost certain, it actually supports Hassett's argument. That is, AI has improved productivity, leading to changes in hiring structures, rather than replacing low-end jobs and increasing unemployment.
Since the last ADP data was -32,000, this weak rebound achieves the effect of both supporting rate cuts and avoiding recession panic. This data proves the economy's weakness without it collapsing entirely—perfectly balanced.
This not only gives him solid leverage to pressure the Fed into continuing rate cuts but also shields him from accusations that 'the economy has completely tanked.'
For his 'AI-driven high growth + low interest rates' policy combo, this is the ideal macroeconomic backdrop. So, this ADP data isn’t an obstacle to rate cuts but rather a stronger justification for them.
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