Phyrex|Dec 09, 2025 04:04
Had a great chat with Brother Wu today about this topic. From my perspective, lifting the SLR and stopping balance sheet reduction are clear signals of a reversal. Of course, this doesn’t mean we’ll immediately shift from a liquidity trough to abundance—it’s a process. But these two factors are, in my opinion, the necessary and sufficient conditions for a reversal.
If the unbinding happens on April 1st, combined with the Fed chair transition in May, as long as the market doesn’t fall into a recession, it’s something to look forward to.
The tweet below is an article I wrote on March 10, 2025, about my take on bull and bear markets. It includes what I thought was the best time and range for bottom-fishing back then. More importantly, it reflects my understanding of market cycles, which might serve as a reference for you guys.
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Link: https://(x.com)/Phyrex_Ni/status/1899014782424096977?s=20
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