qinbafrank|12月 07, 2025 04:35
From the perspective of the China US G2, the latest national security strategy report of the United States is usually released by the President during one term. Trump's second term of office has been less than a year so far. This national security strategy report will become a strategic guidance document for the United States in the next three years, even a programmatic document for long-term strategic changes in the United States. Even if the Democratic Party takes office, it is unlikely to completely reverse. It's worth taking a good look and discussing personal understanding:
1. What are the issues pointed out in the report regarding the past US national security strategy?
At the beginning of the report, it was pointed out that since the end of the Cold War, American diplomatic elites have mistakenly regarded the long-term maintenance of American world dominance as the most important national interest, overestimated the ability of the United States to maintain a huge welfare regulatory administrative system domestically and a huge military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid system abroad, which has undermined the power, wealth, and moral foundation of the United States.
The new national security strategy principle is to bid farewell to ideology and return to flexible realism. Clearly stating that the United States' foreign policy is no longer primarily based on the export of traditional political ideologies or values.
2. What is the new national security strategy policy?
The new national security strategy focuses on the following points:
1) Defending US Homeland Security:
Border control to combat illegal immigration, control drugs and crime;
2) Allies share responsibility
Allies must significantly increase defense spending and invest more practical capabilities in concentrating defense capabilities;
Promote peace agreements among regions and countries.
3) Economic security:
Trade balance, safeguarding critical supply chains and material security, reindustrialization, revitalizing the defense industry base, restoring energy dominance, and maintaining and enhancing the United States' financial dominance.
4) Geostrategic Strategy
Stability in the Western Hemisphere: Trump's version of Monroe Doctrine returns, consolidates the backyard, and prevents non Western Hemisphere strategic competitors from deploying military forces or controlling strategic assets in this region;
Asia: Winning the Economic Future and Preventing Military Confrontation
The United States will adjust its economic relations with China, prioritizing equality and fairness to restore its economic independence; This must be accompanied by a deterrence strategy to prevent the outbreak of war in the Indo Pacific region.
The United States values Taiwan's strategic position in entering the second island chain more and does not support any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. The United States and its allies will build a military force capable of preventing war on the first island chain, and its diplomatic efforts should focus on obtaining greater access to ports and other facilities on the first island chain, thereby enhancing its ability to prevent the use of force to seize Taiwan or create an unfavorable balance of power against the United States and its allies.
Europe: Promoting the Greatness of Europe
The report expresses deep concern about the current situation in Europe, stating that it is not only facing economic stagnation, but also the risk of "civilization being erased", including risks such as sovereignty erosion, large-scale immigration, low birth rates, and loss of national identity.
The core interests of the United States are to quickly facilitate a ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict, stabilize the European economy, rebuild strategic stability with Russia, and rebuild Ukraine.
3. What is the expression for China? What are the changes in China's strategy?
Since China's economic opening-up in 1979, there has always been a fundamental imbalance in the commercial relationship between China and the United States. At first, the relationship between the United States and China was that of a mature wealthy economy and one of the poorest countries in the world, but now it has evolved into an almost equal partnership. The United States will rebalance its economic relationship with China in the future, based on the principle of reciprocity and fairness, and revitalize its independent economic status.
Compared to the Biden era National Security Strategy Report, which defined China as its top competitor, this time the wording is indeed more moderate. But if this is seen as a strategic retreat of the United States in Asia, it would be a great misjudgment.
Trump's strategic report seems to have greatly improved China's position and rebalanced its economic relations with China. In fact, it has transformed the previously dominated ideological and geopolitical game between China and the United States into a new strategy of economic and trade game, technology blockade and containment.
This document has made many explicit or implicit accusations against China, including accusations of "overcapacity", subsidies, and industrial policies. It is obvious that Trump has focused on the economic, trade and science and technology level of the competition game. Instead of giving up the economic competition with China, Trump is trying to force China to give up its existing economic and science and technology development strategy under the banner of "America first".
This reflects that since unilateral pressure is ineffective, the core of the new strategy is to unite allies and use collective economic power to confront and contain China's economic influence and plundering behavior; Establish an economic NATO and engage in long-term games
And there is no intention to reduce the presence of military forces in the Asia Pacific region. Instead, it claims that maintaining military superiority to contain the "Taiwan dispute" is always the top priority, stating that the United States will build a military force that can effectively operate in any region of the first island chain.
4. The actual G2 between China and the United States, as well as the new situation of the game between China and the United States
The national security strategy document in Trump's second term of office does not clearly state that China is the largest strategic competitor or even enemy of the United States, but the whole report still reveals the intention of competing with China. Not to mention opponents, there are opponents everywhere.
Simply put, the means of game theory have shifted from comprehensive containment to long-term games that focus on practical interests. The main battlefield has become the competition for economic, trade, and security, as well as the competition for future technology, which is a field that is both high and low, and determines life and death. The means are to shift from ideological confrontation to realistic interest games, including forming economic alliances, competing for supply chain dominance, and seizing global market share.
The strategic objectives of Trump and his ruling team are clear: to maintain the advantages of the United States in military, economic, scientific and technological, financial and "soft power" as far as possible; Viewing the entire Western Hemisphere as America's "backyard" and excluding China's influence; To prevent China from rising as a dominant power in the region and international community, increase investment in the "first island chain" and maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
Taking a comprehensive look at this US national security strategy report, I think Trump actually thinks very clearly that instead of maintaining a false prosperity, he should take the initiative to admit the current problems of the United States, unable to deal with all global challenges and unable to independently assume global security. But it's about prioritizing the return to the United States. Only strong domestic power (political, economic, industrial, technological, and cultural) has the cornerstone of an effective foreign policy. If these aspects are not strong, it's just external strength and internal strength. Everything else is meaningless.
This also means that the game between China and the United States has shifted from a geopolitical Cold War to an economic and technological Cold War. (Of course, it started very early)
In the future, China will face more complex and intense competition in the fields of economy and technology.
As we discussed before, deep-seated conflicts and irreconcilable core interests determine that long-term games are inevitable. However, internal constraints and constraints on both sides also force them to fight without breaking, and both sides are walking on a tightrope. The bottom line thinking is that the existence of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction reduces the possibility of a direct outbreak of a hot war between the two sides. In a long-term strategic game cycle, there will be repeated explorations and agent conflicts in multiple fields such as economy, trade, technology, finance, and geopolitics, including containment and counter containment, encirclement and counter encirclement.
This protracted battle
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