Stop QT to boost emotions, BTC finally pulled a little bit, and I saw my friends shouting to throw away the small tram again, it's awesome. But in fact, it is still oscillating at present, and the oscillation is still the oscillation of TM. (It may be a bit long, but you can pull it down to see the conclusion) List the things that need to be paid attention to next 1. The new chairman of Trump will announce the management of the mouth gun at the beginning of next year. The announcement may raise concerns in the market about the independence of the Federal Reserve, but the overall trend is still towards easing. 2. The expectation of Japan's interest rate hike has been gradually accepted by the market, and there will be no fear or panic like last year's 85. 3. CME predicts that the probability of a December interest rate cut is already 89.1%, close to confirming its implementation, but more importantly, Lao Bao's speech and dot matrix chart next year show how eagle it is. And will the new chairman deliver a speech to ease this eagle. The expectation of a January interest rate cut is currently only 26% 4. Stopping balance sheet tightening is more about boosting emotions, not expanding the balance sheet, and there is also the cancellation of SLR (in simple terms, relaxing an important "tightening spell" on banks, allowing them to have more money to do other things), which is also a prerequisite for the reversal and recovery of loose liquidity. This isn't that fast. 5. The SEC Chairman stated that the innovation exemption for cryptocurrency companies will take effect in January next year. This means that big players can enter now. The wealth management channels in the United States are opening their doors to BTC and cryptocurrency assets, which also requires time. This means that from now on, there will be even greater looseness, and now they are all laying out. But not so fast. 6. Expanding the table or even QE requires even more time. It's still early. Is there anything else to add to the above. And remember my picture After a decline of about 20%, it takes time to repair the market within the box There are several possible situations: A、 The possibility of further decline (falling below 8) Some friends say that currently 82-92 is a relay, and there is still a big drop, looking for a bottom or deep bear. This requires an expectation of panic. In 2022, the deep bear market was in a cycle of interest rate hikes Will there be a rate hike cycle next year, with a probability of less than 10%. After all, QT just stopped yesterday. Secondly, the burst of the AI foam triggered the adjustment of the US stock market. BTC is indeed not immune, but it is not likely to burst now. Then it was due to the expectation of a recession that led to interest rate cuts, similar to what happened in 2007-08, At least the unemployment rate for Q1 next year needs to be above 4.6, and it will be 4.4 in September This is also my concern. After the 12.11 interest rate meeting, the unemployment rate data for November will be released, which can be viewed at that time. Don't be fooled by only 0.2 points, this year it's in 4.2 4.3 4.4 Wandered for a year. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is also cutting interest rates to prevent the onset of a recession, and the December rate cut is an even greater reason for this. B、 After the shock, the market rebounded and rose We need to continue speculating on interest rate cuts in January, and there are no signs of economic recession, accompanied by new positive news, such as the fifth point mentioned earlier. This is a positive hype on the event At the same time, with the BTC price stabilizing above 101, Meeting these two criteria is considered a trend rebound. C、 If neither A nor B is satisfied, then continue to oscillate. Finally, let me give a relatively certain answer now, I can't say for sure I need to see how Old Bao will speak at the council meeting first, whether it's a pigeon or a biased eagle Secondly, what is the result of the macro data in November, what is the unemployment rate after the US government shutdown, and how is inflation. Will Japan raise interest rates this month and whether they can be implemented. You will basically know the answers to these things before Christmas. At present, it is still a bottom repair market. Shake, still shake, 83-93 shake, I don't know if 94 can stand firm if it's good. It's hard to say. Regarding the trading situation, whether you think you want to enter the deep bear market and start fixed investment or wait for the bottom to buy and expect a rebound later, if you have a lot of money, you can enter a bottom position or patiently wait for a short position to continue. If the trend rebounds, there will be signals, be patient and wait.