0x牛牛|永远相信好事会降临|12月 01, 2025 19:35
My personal judgment is that this is the last retest in the short term.
The reasons for the strong support at 80k before still hold true now.
The only unsettling indicator right now is BTC's monthly chart.
The left shoulder and head on the monthly chart have already formed. If it follows the head-and-shoulders pattern, there will be a rebound early next year. The rebound might go up to 100k, but if it fails to break a new high, a large-scale head-and-shoulders pattern will emerge.
Once a head-and-shoulders pattern forms, there’s basically no way out—it’s a guaranteed bear market.
It’s a bit early to talk about next year now, as there are still many uncertainties.
Here’s my short-term judgment—let’s see if I’m right:
1. A weekly-level retest might touch November’s low of 80,600 or even break below it. But even if it breaks, it will quickly recover. At that point, the retest will be over, and the Christmas rally will officially begin.
2. Following that, there will be a rebound from the end of the year to early next year, reaching above 105k.
Let’s wait and see.
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