
金色财经|Dec 01, 2025 03:17
[Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Sends Clear Signal: Rate Hike Possible in December]
Reported by Golden Finance, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has given the clearest indication yet that the policy committee may raise the benchmark interest rate this month. He emphasized that any rate hike would merely be an adjustment to the degree of monetary easing, and the authorities will make appropriate decisions on whether to proceed with policy changes.
Speaking to local business leaders in Nagoya, central Japan, on Monday, Ueda stated that the central bank will 'assess domestic and international economic conditions, inflation, and financial market dynamics, weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates, and make timely decisions.'
According to overnight index swap data, traders estimate a roughly 64% probability of a rate hike when the central bank concludes its next policy meeting on December 19. The likelihood of action before January next year has risen to 90%.
Prior to Ueda's remarks, members of the policy committee had already been signaling support for a rate hike. In addition to two dissenting members calling for a rate increase during the last two meetings, Junko Koeda explicitly stated that interest rate normalization should proceed (without specifying a timeline), and Kazuyuki Masu mentioned in an interview with *Nikkei* that the timing for a rate hike is approaching. Even dovish member Asahi Noguchi pointed out last week that the risk of delaying policy adjustments is increasing.
Following Ueda's speech, the yen strengthened slightly against the dollar. Before his remarks, as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike grew, the yield on Japan's two-year government bonds had already risen to its highest level since 2008.
Timeline