1. December 1: The U.S. officially stops QT (Quantitative Tightening) This is one of the most critical liquidity turning points in this economic cycle. It marks the official end of the liquidity withdrawal era that began in 2022. The market will shift from a "shrinking volume game" to a "stock (or even incremental) game." This is a fundamental positive for risk assets (especially Crypto and growth stocks). The pause in QT means "implicit easing" is arriving earlier than expected. 2. The Federal Reserve enters its blackout period Once the blackout period begins, all official speeches will be paused. The market can only rely on this week's three speeches + data to speculate on whether there will be a rate cut in December. After next Wednesday, it will be equivalent to a "freeze on rate cut expectations pricing." 3. December 2, 09:00: Powell's speech This is the most critical event of the week. Although the Fed will be in its blackout period, every word and action from Powell will still be closely watched by the market. Considering QT has just stopped, the market is extremely eager to know how he defines the next steps in monetary policy—whether it’s a continuation of preemptive rate cuts or a wait-and-see approach to potential inflationary pressures. If Powell deliberately releases hawkish remarks to balance out the positive impact of stopping QT ("suppressing rate cut expectations"), the market could see a short-term sharp drop. 4. December 2, 23:00: The most hawkish governor, Bowman, testifies in the House Her softening stance would carry five times the weight of an ordinary dove. If even she acknowledges easing pressures on employment and inflation, it would indicate that the Fed's hawks have been defeated by reality. 5. December 3: ADP data (November) In the absence of the major non-farm payroll data, the importance of the ADP data has increased compared to before. It’s now the only window to observe U.S. employment. If it’s significantly weaker than expected = strengthens rate cut expectations. If it’s stronger than expected = the market might reflexively interpret it as "distorted data, actual conditions are weaker." 6. December 5: September PCE Although it’s two months late, it still serves as an indicator of trends. If the data is weaker than expected, it will strengthen rate cut expectations. But if this delayed September PCE shows signs of inflation picking up at the time, even though it’s old data, hawks could use it as evidence that inflation might reignite due to fiscal stimulus, thereby shaking the market’s confidence in a December rate cut.