Rocky|11月 28, 2025 09:45
We're about to experience a honeymoon period in the market, which will likely be divided into two phases. The first phase is this week—up until December 10. The second phase is from December 10 to Christmas. Overall, the trend may show a rise followed by a pullback.
Currently, three major factors are creating market opportunities:
1️⃣ The U.S. Treasury's TGA account replenishing market liquidity. It's estimated that over the next 3–6 weeks, around $300 billion in liquidity will be released.
2️⃣ The probability of a rate cut on December 10 has significantly increased. On Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has already risen to 87%. The market will start speculating on the potential benefits of the rate cut.
3️⃣ On December 1, the Federal Reserve stopped quantitative tightening and announced a new round of Treasury purchase plans starting in January to ease market pressure.
Combined with recent geopolitical and external market conditions, which are relatively calm, this short window period is worth looking forward to. However, keep in mind that the period from December 10 after the rate cut to Christmas has historically been a time of tight market liquidity. The market may reverse during this time, which could be a good opportunity to lock in profits!
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