BTC has formed two major chip concentration zones at $94-98k and $101-118k, corresponding to the historical fair value and the short-term holder cost line. In late November, 950,000 BTC accumulated in the $84-85k range, with 400,000 BTC being actual turnover, possibly involving whale operations. Current implied volatility has declined, but the price is still hovering in the key cost range. When seasonal cycles diverge from trend structures, it’s often the moment traders are most prone to misjudgment.