Who is the most beneficial for the cryptocurrency market as the chairman of the Federal Reserve? Candidate List and Key Time Points Analysis! The current term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will expire in May 2026. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Benson revealed that Trump is highly likely to announce the next nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman before Christmas. The monetary policy inclination of the Federal Reserve Chairman will greatly affect the pace and endpoint of future interest rate cuts. As the cryptocurrency market is the most sensitive to liquidity and interest rates, it is crucial for the next Federal Reserve Chairman's monetary policy stance to be a dove or an eagle. This article will list the policy stances of current popular candidates and their impact on the cryptocurrency industry, the likelihood of their selection, and key timing points. 1. Kevin Hassett: The most dovish candidate, Trump's economic advisor (most favorable) Hassett is the former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a core economic think tank of Trump, and a candidate who can bring Trump's will to cut interest rates into the Federal Reserve. He has publicly expressed support for deeper and faster interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth; At the same time, it has a friendly attitude towards the cryptocurrency market and regards Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against inflation, which may promote the relaxation of regulation on the cryptocurrency market. If Hassett is elected as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, it will be an absolute positive for the high interest rate sensitive cryptocurrency market, and a rapid and significant interest rate cut will bring the next liquidity bull market for risk assets. 2. Kevin Warsh: The most hawkish candidate, supporting CBDC and opposing decentralization (the most bearish) Walsh is a former member of the Federal Reserve Board and a researcher at the Hoover Institution. Monetary policy has long been hawkish, leaning towards tightening interest rates and prioritizing inflation prevention (and advocating for reducing the central bank's balance sheet). If he takes office, it may delay or limit the rapid decline of interest rates, thereby suppressing the valuation of cryptocurrency risk assets and capital inflows. At the same time, Walsh has publicly supported the development of CBDC (central bank digital currency) in the United States. For Crypto fundamentalists who pursue decentralization and censorship resistance, Walsh's rise to power is also negative. 3. Christopher Waller: Steady candidate supporting stablecoins (neutral) Waller is a current member of the Federal Reserve Board, with a conservative and dovish stance on monetary policy. He supports gradual interest rate cuts and has publicly stated that digital assets can serve as a supplement to payment tools. He believes that with proper regulation, stablecoins can enhance the status of the US dollar. Waller's conservative style may limit the occurrence of significant easing, and if he takes office, the evolution of the future interest rate path requires further analysis of the overall composition of the voting committee. 4. Rick Rieder: Neutral and dovish, positive for mainstream assets such as BTC (positive) Riedel is BlackRock's global fixed income chief, directly controlling trillions of dollars in fund allocation; Its monetary stance is neutral and dovish, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should remain cautious and flexible after reaching a neutral interest rate. At the same time, he believes that in an environment where traditional asset correlations are converging, cryptocurrencies have unique safe haven and hedging value, calling Bitcoin the gold of the 21st century. If he takes office, it may attract institutional funds to allocate to the cryptocurrency market, stabilize the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, and benefit mainstream cryptocurrency assets such as BTC. 5. Michelle Bowman: A hawkish candidate who rarely expresses negative views on the cryptocurrency market Bauman is currently a member of the Federal Reserve Board, and his hawkish monetary policy stance is no less than that of Walsh. Under the widespread market expectation of interest rate cuts and pressure from the Trump administration, Bauman clearly advocates for maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period of time and has repeatedly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of another rate hike; If he takes office, there is no doubt that it will pose a substantial negative impact on the cryptocurrency market and risk assets. The likelihood of the above five candidates being elected at present At present, the event is in the presidential nomination stage, and it is predicted that Kevin Hassett is far ahead with a 52% nomination probability in the Polymarket, with Bloomberg exclusively reporting Hassett as the leader; The second place is Christopher Waller, with a nomination probability of 22%; The third place goes to Kevin Warsh, with a nomination probability of 19%; Next up is Rick Rieder 2%; Michelle Bowman 1%. Key time nodes that need attention The replacement of the Federal Reserve Chairman needs to go through two stages. The first stage is for the Trump team to interview and screen candidates, and determine the final nominee, who is only one person. According to US Treasury Secretary Besson's statement, Trump will officially announce his nominees before Christmas. If Hassett is confirmed to be nominated, it is highly likely that the cryptocurrency market will experience a Christmas market. The second stage is to confirm the nominated candidates and submit them to the Senate for voting; The Senate is expected to hold hearings in January February 2026, and committee and plenary votes in March April. It should be noted that there is still a 32% probability in Polymarket that Trump will not officially announce his nominees in December. Summary: Currently, Hassett has a leading probability of being elected, but it has not yet been reflected in bond yields and risk asset prices. We need to continue to monitor the progress of this event in the future. In the short term, if Trump confirms the nomination of Hassett before Christmas, the cryptocurrency market is likely to experience a Christmas market; In the long run, the monetary policy stance of the next Federal Reserve Chairman will also directly affect the price performance of risk assets in the next four years.