Recently, there have been rumors in the market that Japan will intervene in the yen exchange rate during the Thanksgiving holiday when liquidity is depleted. If the Bank of Japan really launches a Thanksgiving raid, it may have a significant impact on Bitcoin. You can recall on August 5, 2024, when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates and Bitcoin plummeted nearly 15% in one day (of course, trading the exchange rate alone would not cause such a big impact). Because in the past few years, global macro hedge funds have been playing a game - borrowing cheap Japanese yen (interest rates of 0-0.5%), exchanging it for US dollars, and then buying high-risk, high-yield assets (such as the Big Seven in the US stock market and Bitcoin). This is the so-called 'Yen Carry Trade'. If the Bank of Japan forcibly pulls the yen back from 157 to 150 during the Thanksgiving raid, yen assets will instantly become expensive and borrowing costs will soar. Hedge funds are facing margin calls. In order to repay the yen debt, they must indiscriminately sell their most liquid and profitable assets. Bitcoin, as a 24-hour traded and highly liquid asset, is often the first to be sold. Most market makers have stopped working during the holidays, and their order books are very thin. At this point, any large hedge fund that needs to cash out even hundreds of millions of dollars due to yen debt issues may cause a significant impact. Because the US stock market cannot be sold, they can only sell Bitcoin. At this point in time, Bitcoin is not a 'safe haven asset', it is a 'liquidity ATM' for global institutional investors. Whoever sells first can get the US dollars to cover the yen margin gap first. But Japanese intervention means a massive sell-off of US dollars. This will lead to a passive decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY). After the first wave of panic, the algorithmic trading of Bitcoin will once again capture the "weak dollar" signal, thereby driving the price of the coin to rebound.