Orange Evening Interpretation 11.26 Da Bing maintained a volatile market during the day, but compared to the US stock market, it has returned to an upward trend. The cryptocurrency market is still relatively weak. Yesterday's failure to hit 9 million yuan is a typical example. Now, the cryptocurrency market has weakened significantly compared to the beginning of the year, both in terms of trading volume and sentiment. The fundamental reason is that there is a problem with the capital chain. Although Da Bing ETF received 128 million yuan of funds last night, compared to the crazy outflow of 300 to 500 million yuan or even 900 million yuan in a single day in recent weeks It must be far from enough. If OTC capital was still tangled between AI and encryption at this time last year, it is now basically a winner. AI is totally hanging up to play encryption. Even though Chuanzi has fulfilled his election commitment to encryption after taking office, deregulation, strategic reserves, and even his family have invested in coin issuing and mining, Trump still has to be down-to-earth when it comes to using national resources. Trump recently launched the U.S. version of the 15th Five Year Plan“ The "Genesis Project" did not mention encryption at all. The focus of this plan is on AI, chips, materials, quantum and other topics. It can only be said that Trump is still on the list of encryption. Once he said how much money to buy, he began to be vague. Besant had said before that the strategic reserve is just not to sell the confiscated coins, and will not really buy them. Maybe Trump is really using encryption, or just his sons like encryption, and use encryption to make money. Now if the details of the subsequent reserve cake and the source of funds are not clear, the market will further squeeze out the premium in this regard, another dat Many companies have entered a death spiral, compared to them, they have already entered a bear market ahead of schedule. I remember a few months ago, when writing articles every afternoon, there would always be news reports about which listed companies had bought how many big cakes. These months, there has been almost no news about this. Instead, news about a certain dat company starting to sell coins to repurchase stocks, or else it will be delisted, basically reflects that the desire for external funds to enter is very low, and those who have already entered are leaving. Therefore, if there is no super positive stimulus in the market, it will be difficult for the coin market to rise to 100000 again. Now, the market is generally immune to small positive news, such as last night when Texas started to reserve the first $5 million big cake ETF Well, this news has no impact on the coin price, so what the market is waiting for now is a big positive, whether it's regulatory or financial. There have also been new developments in the Russia Ukraine negotiations. The person in charge of the Russia Ukraine negotiations last night US officials have stated that Ukrainians have agreed to a peace agreement, with some minor details yet to be resolved, but they have already agreed to reach a peace agreement. He also stated that the 19 point Ukrainian peace plan no longer includes amnesty clauses. Trump also said The peace agreement is very close to being reached, with only a few differences left. US personnel have been assigned to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine separately. However, Russia clearly has objections to these 19 points, as shells are still being fired at Kiev. Personally, I feel that the negotiations in the next few weeks can at most reach a temporary agreement. Both sides are still carrying out military actions, and the remaining differences in Ukraine are definitely crucial, involving territory. It is not easy to relax. Today, gold prices have started to rise again, which can already explain the problem. The real ceasefire should be next year. Last night, the data from Americans was okay, In September, PPI increased by 0.3% month on month, driven by rising energy costs and inflation. The core PPI growth rate of 0.1% month on month was lower than expected; ADP Weekly Report: Private sector employment has decreased by 13500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, with intensified job losses; Retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month on month, far below expectations, with car sales being the main drag. These are basically all in support of the December interest rate cut. Besant also said that the new chairman could be determined before Christmas, and the big probability was Hassett. In the future, the Federal Reserve will basically follow Trump's instructions, and may usher in the chairman of the dove in history. In addition, now for the interest rate cut in December, nine officials are all supportive of the rate cut, cme and polymarket are both 83% probability of rate cut, which is basically stable. The US stock market has rebounded significantly, and Google has reached a new high for three consecutive days. In terms of shanzhai, mon has basically doubled in a day. Even without being listed on Binance, cb has proven that it has the strength to promote blue chip shanzhai with nearly 5 billion fdv. Another point is that mon is quite stubborn, not wanting to give Binance a 10% listing fee, so in the end, even alpha was mixed in. This is similar to hypo and cc, both want to maintain market value and coin price through strength. Hype is obviously very successful, not relying on Binance to reach a market value of 40 billion. mon's performance is still good for the time being. On the first day of launch, 130 million tvl was launched, 33 ecological projects were launched, and top players such as uni, morpho, crv, etc, USDC should also be launched soon, which is probably the best new project ecosystem construction in recent times. Mon may also experience a short-term pullback, but in the long run, I think it is still worth winning. On the one hand, the tech savvy ecosystem is good, and Binance is already wary of it threatening its own BSC, after all, they are all EVM chains and competitive relationships. Secondly, there is a saying about CB's launch pad that mon has a large trading volume in CB, which has attracted many new retail investors who play knockoff games. There is a possibility of going back to Binance's path in the future, after all, regulatory issues have been resolved, and new players in CB may only recognize their own launch pad projects. There may also be top-level projects such as base, arc, and temp following behind Monad. It is possible that a new Four Emperors and Seven Martial Seas may form in the future, so I suggest continuing to hold onto them; Binance Alpha unexpectedly posted two 1M level memes yesterday, namely BNBHolder and Vulgar Penguin. It seems that this is also trying to kill the reputation of Monad. It has to be said that Binance has a strong sense of crisis; Last night, there were MegaETH's deposits, although the upper limit changes from time to time, are still in a mess, but everyone is really rushing. This is also a big blue chip, and those who are new must make a profit. In the current market, apart from new blue chip idols, we can only buy income generating application-oriented projects such as Hype, Aster, ENA, Pump, etc., or lay out some protocols such as Uni, AAVE, Eigen that can withstand bull and bear markets. Other risks are high and not suitable for long-term holding. Diamond traders only need to look at BTC, ETH, Sol, BNB, etc.