Is the current environment a reversal or a rebound? If there is a reversal, will everything be smooth sailing? If there is a rebound, where is the next danger point? （1） Monetary Policy First of all, in my personal opinion, it should still be in a rebound rather than a reversal. (Of course, I may not be right) The most important reversal is that the Federal Reserve has fully entered into a policy of monetary easing, and from current conditions, although it will stop reducing its balance sheet from December 1st, it has not entered a comprehensive interest rate cut phase, let alone expanding its balance sheet. The frequency of interest rate cuts in 2026 is still difficult to determine, and if it does not enter a fully relaxed environment, it means that the risks to the US economy still exist. As long as this possibility exists, I personally believe it is not a reversal. Especially from the upward trend that began last Friday night, it is clear that Williams' speech has driven the market to reconsider expectations of the Fed's December interest rate cut, which has eased the decline. This also shows that the Fed's monetary policy is one of the most important factors affecting market trends. Many people are now looking forward to the Federal Reserve announcing a rate cut in December, which is indeed beneficial for the risk market. However, it should be noted that the latest dot matrix will be released in December, and Powell will continue to maintain a hawkish stance during his speech. In October, the expected interest rate cut drove the market up, but after Powell's speech that there may not be a rate cut in December, the market began to decline. Coupled with the government shutdown and liquidity tightening, it caused a significant drop in sentiment. So, a simple interest rate cut cannot excite the market. Risk markets are very important for managing expectations. Therefore, even if the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut at its December meeting, the market may not be optimistic about the dot matrix for 2026, which will only be maintained twice. Moreover, Powell's speech is even more important. If the dot plot is a long-term forecast for the future, then Powell's speech is the impact on the short-term market. If Powell continues to maintain hawkish statements, such as not continuing to cut interest rates in January 2026, it will still be unsettling for the market. On the contrary, if Powell shows no opposition to continuing interest rate cuts and has obvious dovish statements, the market will be more satisfied. Figure: Goldman Sachs' forecast for the 2025-2026 interest rate path (whether the pace of interest rate cuts is fast enough to determine whether to reverse) From Goldman Sachs' 2025 to 2026 interest rate path forecast, it can also be seen that even with the baseline expectation (60%) of continuous interest rate cuts in the future, the pace is still slow and has not entered the fast, sustained, and clear easing cycle required by the market. As long as the path of interest rate cuts is not fast enough and uncertain enough, I believe that the current market situation is difficult to define as a true reversal, and can only be considered a rebound under policy games. Therefore, from the perspective of overall macro conditions, it may not be considered a reversal until a complete and rapid rate cut channel is entered, and the market trend may be biased by the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts at any time. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits