The probability of a rate cut in December has been stuck at 80%+, neither going up nor down—can't lock it in, can't push it down either. The market's focus moving forward is pretty clear: - Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks - The attitude of the Fed Chair - Whether a few Fed governors will change their stance before the December FOMC meeting For risk assets, the short-term is very likely to enter a consolidation range. This week also includes Thanksgiving holiday closures and early Friday close for U.S. stocks, so effective trading time is already limited—what’s left is basically 'garbage time.' Bitcoin's rebound remains weak, still locked in a range. Patience is key for a second test; forming a decent bottom is what really matters.