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RamenPanda
RamenPanda|Nov 25, 2025 18:41
UBS: CoWoS packaging demand surges due to Nvidia, AMD, and Google TPU: 1. Significantly raised the 2026 forecast for CoWoS (TSMC advanced packaging) total demand, mainly driven by GPUs and Google TPU. 2. Nvidia: Demand estimate increased by 13%, primarily due to Rubin architecture, with TSMC’s 2026 production capacity potentially reaching 3 million units; additionally, considering the potential upside from Vera CPU adopting CoWoS packaging. 3. AMD: Demand estimate sharply increased by 56%, optimistic about MI450 (using cabinet-level architecture) + strong outlook from confirmed OpenAI procurement. 4. Broadcom: Expected to contribute 260-280k CoWoS demand for cloud AI in 2026 (only 90-100k in 2025), nearly tripling growth. 5. Google TPU: Observing clear signs of volume ramp-up for TPU v7p (based on N3 + CoWoS), with active testing and planning. 6. OpenAI’s self-developed ASIC: Due to major ramp-up occurring after Q3 2026, unit forecast for 2026 has been revised down from 700k to 500k. Overall conclusion: CoWoS supply and demand will remain extremely tight in 2026, with the speed of TSMC’s advanced packaging capacity expansion still being the key bottleneck. Tell me, where’s the AI bubble?
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