K三 凯|11月 25, 2025 10:25
Is the market fluctuating? The game of the fate of the US dollar?
In these past few months, I have always seen some questions: "Why does the current market look so awkward? There are continuous good news, but the market is like being pressed down by ghosts
If you only focus on the candlestick, you won't understand what's happening now. I have been reviewing this highly valuable macro analysis for the past few days, and after reading it, I understand that this is not a "market fluctuation" at all, nor is it a simple "long short game".
This is the largest "crustal movement" in the global monetary system since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
In order to help everyone understand this immortal fight, I have broken down those complex financial jargon and talked about the three levels of war that are currently happening.
The first layer of game: the rupture between two 'dollars'
Previously, we believed that the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and major Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan Chase and JPM wore the same pair of pants. But today, this alliance has broken down.
The United States is currently divided into two major camps:
Old order (conservative): centered around the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase.
Benefit point: They survive on debt and collect tolls as "dollar intermediaries". They hope that the US dollar will continue to be used as a debt instrument, and all money must go through the banking system.
New Order (Reformist): Centered around the US Treasury Department (Understand King team) and stablecoins/Bitcoin.
Benefit point: They realize that US Treasury bonds cannot be sold anymore and must switch ways of playing. They want to use stablecoins (digital dollars) to bypass banks and directly inject blood into the world, and use Bitcoin as a hard asset to endorse the fragile dollar.
In short, the old forces want to preserve the privileges of banks, while the new forces want to use Crypto to reshape the dominance of the US dollar. That's why seeing the policy aspect is so divisive.
Second level game: JPMorgan Chase's' War of Resistance '
The article mentions a shocking detail: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is crazily shorting MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Why? Because MSTR is not an ordinary software company, it is a 'vulnerability'.
The gameplay of MSTR is: borrowing fiat currency (debt) - buying Bitcoin (hard assets). It has continuously converted Wall Street's proud fiat currency into Bitcoin.
For traditional banks like JPMorgan, this is fatal.
If everyone settles with stablecoins and reserves with Bitcoin in the future, who still needs commercial banks? Who still keeps money in JPM?
So, JPM's recent "custody delay" and joint institutional short selling are not aimed at making money, but at "plugging loopholes". They are maintaining the old financial defense line, which is a survival defense battle.
Third layer game: The national team's' darkest moment '
This is the most counterintuitive and confusing part: since the Ministry of Finance/Dongwang team is optimistic about Bitcoin, why not directly pull the market?
What would happen if the US government directly announced tomorrow: 'We want to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve'?
Bitcoin will instantly reach $200000, $500000, or even $1 million (Gamma Squeeze).
This is good news for individual investors, but it is a disaster for the national team that has not yet built its position. The cost is too high!
So, the current script is:
1 The old forces (JPM) are desperately trying to prove that Bitcoin is a foam.
Two new forces (the Ministry of Finance) are tacitly approving this suppression.
Why tacitly approve? Because they are using their opponents' suppression to engage in 'invisible fundraising'.
Waiting——
Control the voting rights of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by 2025;
Wait until MSTR, as a 'conversion bridge', is sufficiently stable;
Wait until you have enough low-priced chips in your hand.
This explains why there are frequent positive news but the currency price is "constipated": this is the main force at the national level controlling the market and washing people.
Time window left for us: 2025-2028
The timeline mentioned at the end of this article is very tight.
If the Understand Wang team cannot complete the reconstruction of the monetary system within this term (before 2028) - shifting from "debt driven" to "asset driven" (BTC/gold), then the US dollar hegemony may really collapse.
So, in the next three years, it will not be a simple rise and fall, but a life and death political and financial battle.
After understanding the above, you should now understand the current strategy:
Don't be scared away by that 'strange crash'. Every deep drop now is likely a splash of water from a fight between immortals, or to wash away unstable chips.
MSTR is not just a stock, it is a barometer. It is the bridge from old finance to the new world, as long as it doesn't collapse, the logic will still be there.
This is a transitional period of 'civilization level'. We are experiencing the biggest change since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
In this battle, we don't know who the big shots on both sides will lose or win. But I think the person holding Bitcoin is the only winner in this war.
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