Adam@Greeks.live|Nov 24, 2025 16:16
Last week saw a sharp downward trend. On Friday, Bitcoin's price briefly approached $80,000, and the market entered a state of extreme fear. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve's dovish remarks provided some relief, but a wave of bearish factors is still on the way.
Looking at options data, IV (implied volatility) hasn't shown a significant increase over the past week. Compared to two weeks ago when prices dropped below $100,000, IV rose more noticeably back then. Currently, Bitcoin's IV across all maturities is above 50%, with short-term IV rising to 55%. Meanwhile, Ethereum's IV across all maturities is above 73%, with short-term IV staying above 80%.
This also confirms what we mentioned earlier: the $100,000 key level holds significantly more importance in the options market compared to the futures and spot markets.
Another change is in Skew. Although the overall trend was still downward last week, Skew did not continue to lean bearish; instead, it showed signs of recovery in some maturities.
Market expectations for a rebound have strengthened, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's recent dovish remarks, which pushed rate cut expectations back above 70%. U.S. stocks have started to rebound, driving the broader capital markets.
However, based on recent news, U.S. stocks' support for cryptocurrencies has clearly weakened. Some institutions are continuing to sell off, and the DAT+ETF momentum might be losing steam.
Considering all these factors, it seems unlikely that there will be a strong market performance in the last month or so of this year. The Federal Reserve's December meeting will be the key event determining the market's direction.
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