Yin|Nov 23, 2025 04:47
MSTR is definitely, absolutely, 100000% going to die!
The core value of MSTR is:
Constant fundraising → buying BTC → pushing BTC up → stock price rises → continue fundraising
If no one is willing to buy their convertible bonds or accept their stock offerings, this will happen:
No new funds to buy BTC
The self-reinforcing upward flywheel gets broken
In the past, MSTR, MARA, and other mining companies were essentially substitutes for Bitcoin in the U.S. stock market, but now that BTC ETFs are here, the logic behind MSTR and MARA has completely collapsed.
After ETFs come out, investors will do the math:
Buying BTC ETF: pure BTC, no dilution, no leverage, no hype
Buying MSTR: CEO can issue more shares whenever he wants, borrow money whenever he wants, leverage up whenever he wants
So here’s the question:
You’re an investor, which one would you choose?
The future market structure: BTC ETFs will swallow up the demand for MSTR.
If you ask any institution:
‘You want BTC exposure, are you buying MSTR or IBIT?’
90% will answer: buy the ETF.
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