Some Bitcoin thoughts here, got long this morning around 82k. Despite being down 35% from the highs, this does not still scream to me like an obvious long (compared to, for example, April lows), maybe an indication of a bigger market shift, but that's not important right now. Most annotations are on the chart, but tldr perps still look to me like they are not in enough pain, spot orderbook is trying to protect the lows and put skew while not elevated that much on Deribit, is elevated quite a bit in IBIT and CME, so I will take that as a signal. From a price action point of view, we are hitting that April consolidation that led to a leg up, therefore I expect some support here, trend-wise this move is the most extended since 2022 relative to distance from MAs and some other things. Overall, I am pretty happy that orderflow larping saved me from any other long attempts on this whole move down, so I am ready to get hurt on this one. Keep in mind that these are swing trades for me, and I'm willing to give this room. Losing 74k on some daily closes below would be a signal to get out here.(adam)