The probability of a rate cut in December according to CME has indeed been steadily rising, currently reaching 41.6%. This might be caused by the initial jobless claims data over the past five weeks. The data shows that while initial claims remain low, continuing jobless claims have climbed all the way to 1.964 million. In other words, companies aren’t laying off workers, but they’re also not hiring. At the same time, the data also indicates that October’s employment hasn’t collapsed, and inflation is still a possibility. So, the mere rise in CME probability doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed will cut rates in December—this is just a reflection of market sentiment fluctuations.