After a delay of 43 days, the big non farm payroll data to be released tonight is the last straw that will determine whether there will be a rate cut in December. This month, the market has experienced a huge change of both ice and fire, from a probability of interest rate cuts of over 90% in early October to less than 30% currently. The September data, as the only market recognized and relatively reliable data without significant distortions, was collected before the US government shutdown. Against the backdrop of the cancellation of the October report and the postponement of the November report to after the FOMC meeting, it is very important. This is the only official employment report that can be seen before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10. The Federal Reserve dare not ignore this report without any data support. If the data crashes in September, decision-makers will tend to believe that October has not improved either. The current market expectation for tonight's data is 50000 employed people and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The published data should ideally not have significant differences around expectations. Because if the number of employed people is too low, it will trigger recession panic. If there are too many employed people, the probability of interest rate cuts will further decrease. It is also best not to significantly revise down the data for July and August, as the fragile market needs stability and resilience to recuperate. Due to the decrease in immigration and AI substitution, the monthly number of new jobs required to maintain balance has decreased from 150000 to 30000 to 50000. This means that if the data released tonight is+40000, it may have been seen as a precursor to a recession in the past, but today it could be interpreted as a 'healthy new normal'. The market's tolerance for absolute values has increased. Because the current market expectation is extremely low: the threshold is only 50000 people, a slightly better one (such as 80000) can easily be interpreted as a "good news". But this positive news cannot hurt the expectation of interest rate cuts, so if the data comes out at 50000 to 70000 (slightly better than the extremely low expectation of 50000), the market may experience a rebound of 'all negative'. Tonight, in order to maintain market stability, we need data with 30000 to 70000 employed people and an unemployment rate below 4.4%. If the number of employed people is less than 20000, it will first trigger market recession panic, and the probability of interest rate cuts in December will rebound to 70%. The market is likely to fall first and then rise. If the number of employed people exceeds 80000, the probability of interest rate cuts in December will be basically zero. So the market may face the 'last drop'. If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.3%, it may trigger the Sam rule, but currently there is a high probability that the unemployment rate will remain at the same level as August.