<<Attention, important data is here>> Today (21:30 Beijing time), the delayed September employment report (non farm payroll+unemployment rate) will be released, not the October or November data (due to the government shutdown, the October unemployment rate is permanently missing, and the November data has been postponed to December). The latest unemployment rate (August) is 4.3%, and the market generally expects the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.3% or slightly increase to 4.3-4.4% in September (with only about 50000-60000 new jobs added, far below the average). The logic of the market's threshold for unemployment rate: one ⃣ Unemployment rate<4.3% (better than expected): The labor market is stronger than expected → inflationary pressure is increasing → the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is significantly reduced (currently market pricing has dropped to below 50%) → the stock market is experiencing a "parabolic" surge (risk asset frenzy, similar to the trend of "better than expected=no interest rate cuts but strong economy"). two ⃣ Unemployment rate=4.3% (as expected): No new information, maintaining the current pricing of "soft landing+pause in interest rate cuts" → the market tends to stabilize after fluctuations. three ⃣ Unemployment rate>4.3% (worsening significantly): labor market accelerates weakening → strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates to protect employment in December → US stocks and bonds rise first and then may plummet due to concerns about economic recession (typical "bad data=looser but poor economy" reaction). The core is that the current market is priced in the 'hawkish suspension of interest rate cuts', and if the data is better → hawkish surprises surge; If it's worse, pigeon pie stimulation but recession panic, it's easy to plummet. ️ Say something reasonable. If the unemployment rate is less than 4.3%, the market will rise in a parabolic pattern If the unemployment rate is 4.3% → the market remains stable If the unemployment rate>4.3% → market crash