Institutional Outlook for September Non Farm payroll report: Weak employment market may continue, but collapse is premature According to BlockBeats, the first non farm payroll report after the shutdown will be released tonight on November 20th. The views of various institutions are as follows: Rockefeller: It is expected that the number of non farm employees will increase by 50000 in September, indicating that the job market remains stable, and the previously released labor data shows a clearly weak trend; Indeed Hiring Lab: Compared to previous reports, we do not believe that there will be significant changes in the September non farm payroll report, and the current weak trend in the labor market will continue; Pan Sen Macro: Any data that currently appears unsatisfactory may continue to ferment due to a six week data vacuum, and the negative impact of non farm data may be amplified; Reuters survey: It is expected that non farm payroll employment will increase by 50000 in September. Economists believe that August data may be suppressed by seasonal anomalies or revised upwards based on previous year trends; Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and it is widely expected that this trend will continue. The labor market will hover at the bottom for some time, but will not fall into recession; Nationwide: It is expected that the non farm payroll will increase by 40000 to 50000 people in September, which will further confirm that the weak job market in the summer has continued into the autumn, and companies will maintain a non recruitment and non layoff attitude; French Agricultural Credit: It is expected that the number of non farm employees will increase by 55000 in September, and the unemployment rate will record 4.3%; The labor market seems to have cooled down, but it has not collapsed, and it is still a situation of "low recruitment and low layoffs"; Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected that the non farm payroll data for September to November will be "very weak", seasonal recruitment may be very weak, and layoffs will be unusually high, which should be enough to convince the Fed's centrists to lean towards the interest rate cut camp; Goldman Sachs Group: It is expected that non farm payroll employment will increase by 80000 in September, and the unemployment rate will record 4.3%; The risk will be hidden in the undisclosed October data, which is expected to record 50000 non farm employment in October; Lianxin Bank: It is expected that the number of non farm employees will increase by about 40000 in September, and the market response may be smaller than usual, as more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions; Consulting firm RSM: The September data, along with the revised values for July and August, will show a slightly better employment outlook than generally expected, but far from boasting. The labor market is still struggling to support itself, and the overall US economy is no exception. (Note: The market consensus expectation is that the non farm payroll in the United States will increase by 50000 in September, and the unemployment rate will record 4.3%.) (Jin Shi)