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金色财经
金色财经|11月 19, 2025 20:33
[Data Gaps Intensify Internal Divisions at the Federal Reserve, Probability of Holding Steady in December Surges] Reported by Golden Finance, the gap in U.S. employment data will persist until after the Federal Reserve's December meeting, exacerbating policy uncertainty and significantly increasing the likelihood of pausing rate cuts. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September non-farm payroll data on Thursday, it has clarified that the next data release will not occur until December 16—at which point the full November dataset will include partial data from October. The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting is scheduled to conclude on December 10, Eastern Time. Meanwhile, the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting reveal sharp divisions among officials over whether a third consecutive rate cut is necessary. Against this backdrop, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of holding rates steady at the December meeting has risen from approximately 50% to nearly 70%.
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Timeline

12月 19, 14:25The default rate of U.S. companies has decreased, but the risk of re-default remains.
12月 19, 06:59The depreciation of the yen benefits risk markets
12月 18, 14:02U.S. CPI rises by 2.7%, lower than expected
12月 18, 13:35The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 has risen to 28.8%.
12月 18, 01:30Polymarket traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged
12月 17, 18:34The Federal Reserve begins purchasing government bonds and injecting liquidity
12月 17, 12:00Federal Reserve bond-buying tool eases year-end repo rate expectations
12月 16, 14:57Analysis of U.S. November Non-Farm Payroll Data
12月 15, 13:54Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing and Inflation
12月 15, 06:47Dark Crypto Week, officially begins

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