The most bizarre part of this decline is not that there are any negative factors, but that after all the negative factors have been digested, the market continues to collapse. This means that the decline is not driven by news, but by structure. In other words, it is not because of new bad things, but because there are no new good things. The current decline has already disrupted the trend line since 2023, and if it continues to decline, there may even be a faint feeling of 2022. But in 2022, driven by major events such as FTX explosion, LUNA collapse, and Three Arrows bankruptcy, the market is very clear about the root cause of the decline. And this time there were no thunderstorms, no black swans, and no project runaway. Within everyone's sight, only the 10.11 incident caused greater damage to the cryptocurrency circle than we expected, and had indiscriminate attacks on players of all sizes in the market. The Chen Zhiqian Zhimin incident has undermined the underlying consensus of Da Bing. So in: On October 11th, dealt an internal blow to the cryptocurrency industry The Chen Zhiqian Zhimin case has added insult to injury 3. Liquidity tightening caused by the US government shutdown 4. Historical peak pullback in the US stock market Under the superposition of multiple unfavorable factors, it is still in the downward channel according to inertia. Especially in the early stages of the decline, the market had high hopes for liquidity recovery after the US government opened its doors and stopped QT. The original expectation was that the government shutdown would end, liquidity would return, and the pie would rise by 116k. However, the market waited for two months, from October to November, but nothing came. QT hasn't stopped yet, TGA hasn't spent yet, US bonds are still sucking blood, and after the US government restarted, no liquidity has been released, and the good news hasn't been realized. The funds that were originally intended for speculation have also been disappointed and withdrawn. Moreover, from the data perspective, the net inflow of BTC ETFs has plummeted recently, while old positions such as Grayscale are steadily selling, creating an awkward situation where institutions are not buying and retail investors have no money to buy. Over the past three months, the market value of stablecoins has been sideways, stagnant, and then declining. This means: there is no money to come in from outside, no money to play games on the chain, no money to pull deals for projects, and no money to take on the market. Moreover, the rise of the pancake from 100000 to 126000 within 2025 is not a breakthrough increase under a new framework, and you may still remember that there were not so many new positive factors when it rose. Since that's the case, the ups and downs are the same. If the positive news, not including new ones, pushes the pie from 100000 to 126000, then the negative news, not including new ones, can also smash the pie to 80000. Everything seems reasonable. Since the trend line has already fallen below, there is no need to worry now. You can also become calm in your heart. Because: the funding structure has changed, the logical environment has changed, and the liquidity cycle has changed, which means that the "trend line" itself has become invalid. After all, the technical line is drawn by funds, not by rules. The structural bottom of this decline lies in when: ETFs return to net inflows, stablecoins return to expansion, US bond auctions fail → the Federal Reserve reopens, TGA begins to substantially release money, expectations of interest rate cuts rise again, and the US stock market recovers in a V-shaped pattern. It depends on when liquidity returns. If the market cannot wait for new money to come in, then it can only be sold out in despair. There are two chances for the market to be rescued afterwards, one this week and one in December. Let's wait and see the large non farm payroll that will be reissued starting this Thursday, CPI， Can retail, wage, and other data change the decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve. See if the probability of a rate cut in December will rise again from 42.9% to 70%. If possible, then this would be the first wave of data rescue. Then, a real liquidity release is needed to fundamentally build the bottom: TGA starts large-scale spending, QT changes to QE, US bond auctions fail → emergency buybacks. But these are all mid to long term benefits that need to be gradually realized from December to Q1 next year. But in the current highly leveraged market, most people may not survive until then.