Although I don’t believe in the 'four-year cycle theory' and don’t think macro liquidity has peaked, the rebound strength of BTC after dropping below 100K this time is clearly much weaker than the retest of previous highs back in March–April. Yesterday, when it dropped below 100K, there weren’t many large liquidations or extreme wicks. The fact that it was so calm at such a key round number suggests that there’s not much leverage left in the long positions in the futures market to liquidate. This kind of spot-driven sell-off, where prices lack rebound elasticity, is a classic characteristic of a bear market. If it doesn’t bounce back to the 106K-108K range within three days, I’ll consider the market to be in a bearish trend.