Four-Year Cycle Overview Series (14)

During the 2012-2013 bull market cycle, this indicator stayed above water for a total of 857 days. During the 2015-2017 bull market cycle, this indicator stayed above water for a total of 903 days. During the 2019-2021 bull market cycle, this indicator stayed above water for a total of 877 days. In the current cycle, this indicator has stayed above water for a total of 917 days so far. The chart shows the percentage of Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss (90-day MA) relative to market cap. The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) indicator is a key on-chain metric in blockchain analysis. It is primarily used to evaluate the overall net profit or loss realized by Bitcoin holders when selling or transferring Bitcoin. The net value is calculated by summing the profits (positive values) and losses (negative values) of all spent (i.e., transferred or sold) Bitcoin at the time of transaction, typically denominated in USD. Essentially, this indicator reflects the net inflow or outflow of capital in the market: - When the value is positive, it indicates overall profit realization, meaning holders are selling at a profit, which could suggest optimistic market sentiment or a market peak. - When the value is negative, it indicates overall loss realization, meaning holders are selling at a loss, which could signal panic selling or a market bottom. Specifically, this indicator can help analyze: • **Market sentiment and cycles**: High positive values are often associated with late bull market stages, where investors take profits; high negative values may appear at bear market bottoms, indicating capitulation. • **Investor behavior**: It captures realized profits/losses from actual transactions rather than unrealized paper gains/losses, providing a more accurate reflection of holder decisions and market pressure. • **Overall profitability**: Aggregates the net results of all on-chain transactions to assess the health of the Bitcoin ecosystem and trends in capital flow.