律动BlockBeats|10月 29, 2025 17:16
The recent interest rate views of the Federal Reserve Board have shown a "three-way polarization", with Chairman Powell's attitude leaning towards dovish
According to BlockBeats, on October 30th, there was a "three pole divergence" in the recent interest rate views of the Federal Reserve's vote committee this year, as follows:
Advocate for a significant interest rate cut
Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Supports a 50 basis point rate cut in October. It sounds realistic to cut interest rates twice this year. The difference in policy views with colleagues is more based on the speed of interest rate cuts rather than the ultimate goal of interest rate cuts.
Biased pigeon
1. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Money market liquidity is gradually tightening, and the tapering of the balance sheet in the coming months may be nearing its end; Recent economic activity data has been stronger than expected, and the risk of a downturn in the job market has increased. Acting too slowly or suppressing employment, acting too quickly or causing the task of combating inflation to be abandoned halfway.
2. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Supports a 25 basis point rate cut in October. Officials can gradually relax monetary policy by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points each time to support the weak labor market. We need to cut interest rates, but we should be cautious.
3. Federal Reserve Governor Bauman: Continue to expect two more interest rate cuts before the end of this year. As long as the labor market and other economic data develop in the direction I expect, we will continue to move forward along the path of lowering the federal funds rate.
4. Federal Reserve Collins: Given the reduced inflation risk and concerns about the job market, further interest rate cuts appear to be "prudent", with an additional 25 basis points cut being appropriate.
5. Federal Reserve Williams: Supports further interest rate cuts this year, despite inflation deviating from the central bank's 2% target in recent months. The interest rate cut is to prevent further deepening of the labor market split.
Biased eagle
1. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: Inflation and employment targets are at risk and need to be cautious.
2. Federal Reserve Governor Barr: The Federal Reserve should remain cautious in further interest rate cuts, as current interest rates are moderately restrictive, tariffs pose risks to inflation, and the fundamentally balanced labor market has potential vulnerabilities.
3. Federal Reserve Musalam: skeptical about further interest rate cuts. Due to the increased risks faced by the labor market, a 25 basis point rate cut in September is supported. However, as the inflation rate is nearly one percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, further rate cuts may mean excessive complacency about rising prices.
4. Federal Reserve Schmid: Tends not to further cut interest rates, and should continue to focus on the risk of high inflation as the Fed seeks a balance between the dual risks of policy tightening and easing.
5. Federal Reserve Gulsby: cautious about early and significant interest rate cuts, not expecting inflation to subside on its own. Both aspects of the Federal Reserve's dual mission are deteriorating. (Golden Ten)
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