Benson Sun|10月 26, 2025 09:27
Honestly, it's kind of ironic.
Originally, CoinKarma started live trading with Ultron,
just to prove that our stuff works.
We didn’t really intend to do signal trading; it was more of a demonstration.
Four months ago, AUM was still around $2 million,
and now it’s almost $12 million.
We’re clearly just a data-driven website,
but now it feels like we’re heading towards asset management.
Never would’ve thought this would happen.
When I was backtesting Ultron,
the win rate was over 80%, whether long or short.
At the time, I was like, what the heck?
How is this even possible? Is it overfitted?
But when we ran it live, the win rate was still over 80%.
Our trading logic inherently includes a "soft stop-loss" mechanism,
not one of those brute-force "hold until you win" strategies.
Plus, we sync the net value directly to the curve every hour,
and the PnL (profit and loss) fluctuations during holding periods are reflected in real-time on the curve.
Even so, the net value curve has maintained an impressive trajectory.
Anyone who understands quant trading knows that these results are simply unbelievable —
even I still find it hard to believe.
As a strategy leaning towards left-side trading,
Ultron has faced quite a few unexpected situations during its 500+ days of live trading:
From the surprise rate hike by the BOJ in early August last year,
to the sharp rally after Trump’s election win in early November last year,
to the tariff wars in early March this year,
and most recently, the "1011 biggest liquidation in history."
Whether it’s chaotic fluctuations, sharp drops, unilateral rallies,
or slow grinding bottoming-out "constipation-style declines,"
Ultron has pretty much experienced it all in these 500+ days.
Each of these unexpected events
could have caused significant losses for quant trading.
But in these 500+ days,
in a market environment where BTC spot only rose by 70%,
Ultron still delivered a cumulative return of +173%,
with a maximum drawdown of only about 21%,
which is roughly 60% of BTC spot’s drawdown.
Currently, live trading records on the exchange show that Ultron has achieved 12 consecutive wins.
But we’re also aware that the time for a stop-loss will come eventually.
There’s no such thing as a perfect strategy,
but to be honest,
we’ve delivered results that even we couldn’t have imagined at the start.
To protect the strategy’s alpha,
we’ll be hiding Ultron’s trade data and logic moving forward.
Initially, we made everything too transparent just for demonstration purposes.
In the future, it might only be available to select VIPs.
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