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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Oct 25, 2025 17:30
BREAKING: Bank reserves at the Fed dropped -59 billion last week to 2.93 trillion, the 2nd-lowest since January 2023. This nearly matches the 2023 low of 2.93 trillion, just before the regional banking crisis. Reserves are now on track for their 3rd consecutive monthly decline. This comes as the Treasury increases debt issuances to rebuild its cash balance following the debt ceiling increase in July, draining liquidity from the banking system. US bank reserves will be a key factor in the Fed’s decision on whether to continue shrinking its balance sheet (QT) at the Wednesday's meeting. Is the Fed done reducing its balance sheet?(The Kobeissi Letter)
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Timeline

Nov 24, 16:33The U.S. Treasury auctions three-month and six-month Treasury bills
Nov 24, 16:31Bitcoin is being transferred from spot exchanges to cold wallets.
Nov 24, 16:20Holiday sales growth in 2025 will slow down
Nov 24, 16:19The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a sharp downward trend.
Nov 24, 16:14BTC-ETF fund flows show significant outflows
Nov 24, 16:08Bitcoin price approaches $80,000, market panic
Nov 24, 16:05The short position ratio of IBIT has dropped sharply to levels close to those in April.
Nov 24, 15:56Short interest in IBIT has dropped significantly.
Nov 24, 15:53Bitcoin ETF experiences massive capital outflows
Nov 24, 10:16The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points remains at 70%.

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