The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 84.6% According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, as of August 18th, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 84.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.4%. In addition, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 6%, and the probabilities of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 42.4% and 51.5%, respectively.