The big one is coming! DVOL has reached a historic low! What is DVOL? DVOL (Deribit Volatility Index) is a Bitcoin implied volatility index calculated by Deribit, similar to the VIX of the stock market. It calculates the expected volatility for the next 30 days based on BTC option prices on Deribit. If DVOL is high, it indicates that the market expects significant fluctuations in the future (possibly a sharp rise or fall). If DVOL is low, it indicates that the market expects little short-term volatility. The black thick line in the picture represents DVOL, and the gray thin line represents BTC spot price. Now DVOL has fallen to a historically low level (only 2.6% of the time was lower than now), indicating that the market is extremely calm. This calmness is not necessarily a good thing, as no one is buying "downside protection" (low demand for put options), which means that in the event of unexpected news or financial shocks, prices may experience sudden and drastic fluctuations. Possible future trends Short term: Due to low market volatility expectations, in the event of unexpected events such as macro data, regulatory news, or large fund flows, DVOL may rapidly soar, driving BTC to experience rapid and significant fluctuations (with uncertain direction but higher downside risk due to insufficient protection). Mid term: After a long period of low DVOL in history, there is often a significant fluctuation market ("volatility compression → volatility explosion"). Now it seems like a calm sea, but the undercurrents may have been accumulating energy. This pullback has already filled the gap in CME. I hope Big Pancake can take the lead and once again lead the altcoins to charge upwards