
飞凡|Jul 20, 2025 12:48
Next week (July 21-27) will be a week of information overload and extremely sensitive market sentiment.
In the absence of the Federal Reserve, Europe's policy choices, global Flash PMI, and the performance reports of tech giants will collectively determine whether the market is moving towards optimism or pessimism.
The European Central Bank is currently at an extremely awkward crossroads.
The June interest rate cut is more like a politically correct gesture, aimed at demonstrating its independent decision-making ability from the Federal Reserve and responding to concerns about the economy in some southern European countries.
Just the rebound in inflation data (June CPI 2.7%) mercilessly hit Lagarde in the face, making the option of continuous interest rate cuts in Europe very dangerous. This week, there is a high probability that Europe will stop cutting interest rates and the wind will turn hawkish.
In addition, the S&P Global Manufacturing/Services Flash PMI for July, released on a hourly basis on July 24th, can be considered a direct indicator of the health of the global economy, including the United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, India, and others.
Why is this PMI important? Firstly, the June manufacturing inventory replenishment is likely to be temporary, as the market cannot determine whether the replenishment is a passive replenishment by companies at low inventory levels or if non terminal demand is indeed recovering. The question is whether the manufacturing inventory replenishment is accompanied by sustained growth in new orders.
In addition, there is the PMI for the service industry, which is the main driver of growth and inflation in developed economies. Whether there can be a soft landing depends on the momentum of the service industry. In addition, the high prices of the service industry also pose a risk of lowering expectations for interest rate cuts in September.
Finally, there are the financial reports of technology companies, which also have the greatest impact on the cryptocurrency industry. The main focus is on the financial reports of Alphabet (Google) and Tesla (Tesla). Of course, the focus is not just on the performance of these two companies, but also on whether the AI narrative that supports the core logic of this bull market can be sustained.
The problem with Google is that its valuation is too high, and the future is whether it can hold onto such a high valuation. The problem with Tesla is whether Robotaxi and Optimus can be implemented, whether the money is enough to spend, and whether it will be judged after the report is released. If the financial report is not good, we can basically gradually sell off the chips related to AI
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