Huatai Securities: Maintain the judgment of the Federal Reserve's two interest rate cuts in September and December

Odaily Planet Daily News: Huatai Securities stated that looking ahead, the transmission of tariffs may further push up core commodity inflation, but considering that the employment market may slow down in the future, we maintain the judgment of the Federal Reserve's two interest rate cuts in September and December. The June CPI data shows that inflation for goods with high import dependence has rebounded, debunking the claim that overseas exporters are lowering prices and tariffs are not transmitted. Considering that the weighted import tariff rate for the United States in May was only 8.7%, and some companies delayed the transmission of prices by consuming inventory, looking ahead, we expect that the transmission of tariffs on inflation will further manifest and may push up US inflation in the short term. The survey by the New York Federal Reserve also confirms that 88% of manufacturing companies and 82% of service companies choose to transmit tariffs to consumers within three months. At the June FOMC press conference, Powell stated that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs during the summer, and the rebound in inflation may be within the Fed's expectations. (Golden Ten)