
Phyrex|Jul 14, 2025 18:21
Today's assignment is not difficult to write. Although the price is somewhat volatile, there is nothing very noteworthy. Trump's focus is on tariffs and the Federal Reserve. Since the agreement with Ukraine on rare earth production has been signed, Russia's unceasing war has become a thorn in the flesh, which will naturally increase the force, but it has little impact on the current market.
Tomorrow's focus will still be on the CPI data. From the market's expectations, the broad CPI front value that ordinary investors are most concerned about is 2.4%, the market expectation is 2.7%, and the Cleveland Fed's expectation is 2.64%. Regardless of which perspective, there is a high probability that the final released CPI data will be greater than the front value. Of course, I can understand that there may be some new things happening with the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Federal Reserve is more concerned about some core inflation, which was 2.8% last month, the market expectation is 3%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast is 2.95%. Similarly, there is a high probability of an increase in core inflation, so many people may say that it is about to fall, after all, an increase in inflation represents a decrease in the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates.
In fact, the current market expectation is not what the current Federal Reserve will do, but what the new Federal Reserve will do. In particular, Trump said on TV today that the interest rate in the United States should be below 1%. Although it is a bit unreliable, it is really what the market likes to hear. So I think if the inflation data is not very good as expected, the impact may be limited.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the URPD data is still not good because it is a new high, but there is also a gap around $114200, and the gap between $112000 and $114000 is considered a small gap. The probability of filling the URPD gap is 100%.
However, the gap in URPD cannot be filled only by a decline. If it can break through a new high again and recalculate, there is also a possibility of filling it, but it should be 100% correct to do so.
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