Phyrex
Phyrex|Jul 13, 2025 08:14
At present, the increase of the market is more due to the expectation that the tariff will be postponed to August 1 and that Trump may select a new chairman of the Federal Reserve in July. Of course, the passing of the beautiful bill also makes the market predict that there may be short-term liquidity entry. Although this is also a "drinking poison to quench thirst", the market will not care so much. After making a lot of money, as long as the last stick is not your own. In addition to the 10-year treasury bond mentioned by Brother Wu, the 20-year and 30-year treasury bond are almost 5%, which means that the market does not believe that the Federal Reserve can easily control inflation, nor that the US fiscal can continue to expand without cost. Generally speaking, 10-year yield=inflation expectation+real interest rate+risk premium The 10-year US Treasury bond is the world's most important risk-free interest rate benchmark, with almost all assets directly or indirectly anchored to valuation. The changes in 10-year US Treasury bonds reflect the market's expectations for future medium - and long-term inflation and interest rate paths. Therefore, it can be said that although the risk market is rising, the bond market believes that US inflation will not be easily controlled, and US interest rate cuts will not be very smooth.
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