TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jul 09, 2025 17:10
The debate between Trump and Powell has been ridiculed for a long time. If we put aside the narrative of party disputes and assume that Trump and Powell are both selfless and decent people who care about the United States, are their differences simply political differences, or are they based on their respective responsibilities and responsible attitude towards the United States, just a dispute of routes caused by different starting points and positions? Firstly, as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell's core decision-making objective is to maintain price stability and full employment. In his view, the economy has not yet "needed" interest rate cuts, inflation has not yet "allowed" interest rate cuts, and credibility "dare not" easily cut interest rates. Starting from the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve, he places greater emphasis on long-term price stability and economic sustainability As the president, Trump pays more attention to short-term economic growth, especially hopes to stimulate economic vitality by cutting interest rates to win the support of voters on the eve of the election. He also needs low interest rates to reduce the interest expenses of the US government. If he cut interest rates earlier, Trump would not even spend so much energy on making money in the tariff war. In terms of monetary policy, Powell prefers a strong dollar, while Trump prefers a weak dollar. When inflation is high → interest rate hikes → US asset yields rise → international capital inflows → US dollar strength When the economy is in recession → interest rate cuts → yield declines → US dollar weakens Congress has assigned the Federal Reserve three tasks: price stability, full employment, and financial stability. Powell is not in a hurry to cut interest rates because he is concerned about a resurgence of inflation. It can even be said that he is not unwilling to cut interest rates, but afraid to do so. You can say he is old-fashioned and conservative, but following the system is the least bad choice, after all, a person who is about to leave office does not want to take too many risks. Trump believes that "too strong a dollar" is not conducive to American manufacturing and exports. He believes that a weak dollar can reduce the price of American goods in the international market, thus improving export competitiveness, reducing trade deficits, and supporting domestic manufacturing, so he needs a relatively weak dollar. The two are not simply 'political differences', but natural differences in institutional roles, incentive structures, and risk preferences. From the perspective of institutional design, the independence of the Federal Reserve is inherently designed to resist political shortsightedness, and from a democratic perspective, the president's pursuit of economic prosperity is also one of his responsibilities. The conflict between the two belongs to a "long-term short-term" game, rather than simply moral superiority. Different roles and perspectives lead to divergent paths, but it does not mean that one party is "irresponsible". But Trump's flamboyant character and big mouth make people think he is too absurd.
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