Focus of the June meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve: Lowering the threshold for interest rate cuts

Odaily Planet Daily News: The focus of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes is as follows: What is the hope of a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bauman, who were appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both of them stated that they will consider cutting interest rates at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be short-lived. 2. The wait-and-see period ends in summer, and there may be a rate cut in September: meeting minutes may suggest that "the trajectory of interest rates will depend on data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end in late summer. The meeting minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the data necessary to make a decision on interest rate cuts before the end of summer. If the situation meets expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September. 3. Lowering the threshold for interest rate cuts: The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting may read more dovish. Powell tends to use neutral language in the June meeting, but the meeting minutes can better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for interest rate cuts is decreasing. 4. Internal divergence clues: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that there was no need to cut interest rates this year, 2 expected to cut interest rates once, 8 believed in two interest rate cuts, and 2 expected to cut interest rates three times. Analysts will search for clues that lead to this divergence. What supports the views of seven Federal Reserve officials, making them believe that there will be no interest rate cuts in 2025. 5. Concerns about dual mission: Previously, the Federal Reserve's economic forecast showed that the rate of price increases would accelerate for the rest of this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to decrease, the rate of price increases will once again decrease. Also, pay attention to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. (Golden Ten)