Correct our understanding of the expected path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from the second half of 2025 to the end of 2026 one ⃣ The path of interest rate cuts in market (FedWatch) pricing Reduce interest rates by 25 basis points once in September 2025 and maintain them unchanged in October 2025; Reduce interest rates by 25 basis points once in December 2025 and maintain them unchanged in January 2026; Reduce interest rates by 25 basis points once in March 26, and maintain them unchanged in April 26; Reduce interest rates by 25 basis points once in June 26, and maintain them unchanged in July, September, and October 26; Reduce interest rates by 25 basis points once in December of the 26th year. From the second half of the 25th year to the end of the 26th year, a total of 125 basis points will be cut in interest rates, and the benchmark interest rate will be lowered to 3% to 3.25%. two ⃣ Path of interest rate cuts by members of the Federal Reserve Board (dot plot) Expected path by 2025: Expected distribution of members: mainly concentrated in the range of 4.0-4.5% Median Expectation (Blue Dot): Approximately 4.0% Market pricing (red dot): approximately 3.75% Expected path for 2026: Expected distribution of members: 3.0-4.0% range, with significant divergence Median Expectation: Approximately 3.5% Market pricing: approximately 3.25% The significant divergence among members regarding the expectation of a 26 year interest rate cut reflects uncertainty, but the median expectation is relatively stable. three ⃣ Trump's requested interest rate cut path: a one-time reduction of 250 basis points At present, the Federal Reserve is continuously reducing its balance sheet, from a peak of about $9.6 trillion in 2021 to the current $6.66 trillion, and the proportion of GDP has decreased from 36% to 22.56%; The interest margin between 10-year and two-year treasury bond has turned positive (4.41% for the current 10-year and 3.91% for the two-year), and the upside down of the yield curve has ended. These two signals indicate that after about four years of interest rate hikes and QE, the health of the US financial system and long-term economic growth expectations have been positively revised. In addition, AGI and super intelligent agents are highly likely to emerge in the second half of the 25th to the end of the 26th year, and the clear regulation of Crypto will enhance the attractiveness of the US dollar financial system to international capital. It is expected that the Fedwatch market will lower interest rates at a faster pace and with greater intensity in the future. And this will work together with the CLARITY Act to boost the intensity and height of the knockoff season.