I founded the American Party because witch poison cannot save this country ▅▅ They thought silence was gold, but forgot that gold fears fire the most. Elon Musk's all in this time will either rewrite American political history or become the most expensive reality show From the perspective of Werewolf, the underlying logic behind Musk's establishment of a new political party is essentially a high-risk prophetic act of jumping the police Anyone who wants to be a third party in political werewolf killing should first look at several successful cases in history ▅▅ one ⃣ I can dance as a prophet He put himself in the position of a prophet, trying to use his identity as a tech tycoon to identify the "werewolf" of American politics - the two party establishment. However, the problem is that this game already has a fixed character configuration, and new players entering will either be voted out or forced to self destruct (if you don't protect yourself, then self destruct) From a game theory perspective, this hand is played with a Taleb style anti fragility, with the Democratic Party being too left-wing and the Republican Party being too right-wing. Middle ground voters are like civilians killed by werewolves, constantly being swayed by the two factions Musk sees this structural opportunity and wants to reshuffle his position as a tech elite. But American politics is not a simple 12 player game, but a massive game involving 300 million people. The rules have long been solidified, and how can the interests behind each seat be calculated? The key issue is: Does he have enough 'silver water'? Tesla and X's shareholders are one group, but political voters are another matter Can you dodge the first night knife? The establishment factions of both parties will definitely unite and vote him out first 3. The most crucial thing is, can he transform his commercial influence into political discourse power like high-level players? two ⃣ I know what cards you have American politics is like a werewolf killing that has already reached its 8th night. The camp of good and bad people has long been clear. If a third party suddenly jumps out at this time, it is likely to be seen as a disruptive lunatic. I already know what your trump card is. What's the use of pretending to be a lunatic with me? Musk's advantage lies in his possession of a large number of information channels (X platform) and funds, but this may actually be a debuff in political games. You will be targeted very badly, and both sides will do it together The most likely outcome: In the initial stage, some disappointed "villagers' votes" towards both parties can be obtained, but as the game progresses, either they will be surrounded and eliminated by the establishment or they will withdraw due to commercial interests. After all, politics is not entrepreneurship, and without the concept of MVP rapid iteration, the cost of being wrong may be the heavy blow of regulation on all companies. In Werewolf, a good person pretending to be a wolf is called "Jump", and a werewolf pretending to be a good person is called "Hook". Musk is now playing more like a tech tycoon jumping politician, but will American voters buy it? I feel suspended